Election Predictions 2006+29-38 House

Well, here goes. My method is going to be different than usual, instead of specific % predictions on every given race my method for both the House Predictions has a two tier (wave) system. First Wave races have a 75% chance of winning, Second Wave races have a 25% chance of winning. I have 37 First Wave races times 75% for a gain of 29 seats. Second Wave House 39 seats times 25% for a 9 seat gain, totalling a pick-up of 29-38 seats (incl VT-AL).  There’s more:

The listings are in descending order, those towards the top of the waves are most likely to win:

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Competitive Congressional District Races ( in2 Waves)

First Wave-75% chance of winning (39) = +29 gain

Vermont – AL – Welch
Texas-22 – Lampson
Florida -16 – Mahoney
Ohio-18 Space
Iowa –01 – Braley
North Carolina – 11 – Shuler
Pennsylvania –10 – Carney
Pennsylvania – 07 – Sestak
Colorado – 07 – Perlmutter

New Mexico – 01 – Madrid
Arizona – 08 – Giffords
Wisconsin – 08 – Kagen
Indiana –02 – Donnelley
Indiana –08 –  Ellsworth
Florida – 22 – Klien
New Hampshire – 02 – Hodes
New York 24 – Arcuri
Kentucky –04 – Lucas
New York – 25 – Maffei
New York – 29 – Massa
Connecticut –04 – Farrell
New York – 20 – Gillibrand
Indiana – 09 – Hill
New York – 19 – Hall
Nebraska – 03 – Kleeb
Pennsylvania – 06 – Murphy

Pennsylvania –08-Murphy
Connecticut – 02 – Courtney
Connecticut – 05 – Murphy

Kentucky – 03 – Yarmuth

Idaho – 01 – Grant
Illinois – 06 – Duckworth
California – 11 – McNerney
Ohio –15 – Kilroy
Colorado –04 – Paccione
Wyoming – AL – Trauner
Virginia – 02 – Kellam
Florida – 13 – Jennings
Arizona -05 – Mitchell
Kansas – 02 – Boyda

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Second Wave- 25% chance of winning (37) = +9 gain

New York – 26 – Davis

Arizona –01 Simon
Colorado –05 – Fawcett
North Carolina –08 Kissel
New Jersey – 07 – Stender
Washington – 08 – Burner
Ohio – 02 – Wulsin

Minnesota – 06 – Wetterling
Nevada – 02 – Derby
Minnesota – 01 – Walz
Pennsylvania – 08 – Murphy
Ohio – 01 – Cranley
Illinois – 10 – Seals
Virginia – 11 – Hurst
Nebraska –01 – Moul
Virginia – 10 – Feder
Kentucky – 02 – Weaver
New York –03 – Meijas
New York – 13 – Harrison
Florida – 08 – Stuart

California  – 04 – Brown
California – 50 – Busby
Washington – 05 – Goldmark
Kansas –04 – McGinn
Pennsylvania – 04 – Altmire
Ohio – 12 – Shamansky
West Virginia –02 Callaghan
Iowa – 02 Loebsack
New Hampshire – 01 – Shea-Porter
Virginia – 05 – Weed
Ilinois – 19 – Stover
New Jersey – 05 – Aronsohn
New Jersey –02 – Hughes
New Jersey –03 – Sexton
New Jersey –04 – Gay

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